The May WTI (CLK25) contract settled at 71.48 (+2.12) [+3.06%], high of 71.83, low of 68.81. Spot price is 69.34 (-0.56), open interest for CLK25 is 3. CLK25 settled above its 5 day (69.86), above its 20 day (67.72), above its 50 day (69.89), above its 100 day (69.74), above its 200 day (70.46) and above its year-to date (70.52) moving averages. 

The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 74.77 (+2.01) [+2.76%], high of 75.03, low of 72.24. Spot Brent price is 73.59 (-0.44). QAM25 settled above its 5 day (73.23), above its 20 day (70.94), above its 50 day (73.04), above its 100 day (73.00), above its 200 day (74.20) and above its year-to-date (73.61) moving averages.

The latest COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 3/28/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -208,888 (a increase in short positions by 3,580 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +197,061 (a increase in long positions by 10,853 from the previous week)

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On Sunday, President Trump warned that buyers of Russian oil could face tariffs of 25% to 50%, stating they could be imposed “at any moment.” As told by NBC, Trump said, “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault ... I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia.” He added, “If you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.” President Trump said he expects to hold another phone conversation with President Putin at some point this week. The U.S. has not imported any Russian crude oil since April 2022, according to EIA data. Meanwhile, India has overtaken China as the largest buyer of Russian crude oil, with Russian oil accounting for about 35% of India’s total crude imports in 2024.

President Trump made headlines again this morning following an interview with NBC in which he issued a stark warning to Iran. “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” he stated, adding, “It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” Despite this latest strong rhetoric, Trump confirmed that negotiations between the two sides were ongoing. However, that did not stop him from threatening Iran with another 25% indirect tariff.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil demand was at 20.736 million barrels per day in January, up 1.149mbpd (+5.9%) year-over-year. U.S. crude oil production was at 13.146 million barrels per day, lower than this past December’s production by 305,000 barrels per day, and the lowest figure since February 2024. 

China’s state-owned energy company CNOOC announced the discovery of a new oil field in the South China Sea, estimated to hold over 100 million tons of crude oil, which measures out to roughly 733 million barrels. China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in a year in March. The official purchasing managers’ index came in at 50.5, ahead of February’s 50.2 and January’s 49.1. Tomorrow Caixin’s Manufacturing PMI for March will be released, with forecasts pegging a 51.1 figure for manufacturing activity. China's Shanghai 300 Index settled at 3,887.31 down -0.71%. 

The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq finished higher-to-unchanged, fighting off session lows, as the market awaits Wednesday’s reciprocal tariff announcements. The Dollar Index is trading at 104.18 (+0.13%) as of this post.

Last week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report showed commercial crude oil inventories with a draw of -3.3 million barrels last week (against a forecast of a -1.6 million barrel draw), to a total of 433.6 million barrels, inventories are about 5% below their five-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day, an increase of +810,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day, and +87,000 barrel per day increase, while refineries operated at 87% capacity. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels per day. Total commercial petroleum inventories grew by 3.2 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 395.9 million barrels to 396.1 million barrels. 

Last Friday’s Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs dropping by 2, to a total of 484 in the week ending March 28th. The 484 total is 22 less than this time last year. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, tota total of 103. The 103 total is 9 rigs less than this time last year. In Canada oil rigs declined by 10, to a total of 108. 

For the week ahead - Tuesday: Weekly API estimates release. Wednesday: President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement and new weekly EIA data. Thursday: Fresh U.S. jobless claims report. Friday: U.S. jobs data for March.

Price Thoughts - Briefly lower at the open, before rocketing higher as participants weighed Trump’s two latest threats and EIA data showed a tighter U.S. oil supply/demand picture than consensus has been. As I’ve been saying, I think Wednesday will be an interesting day with the tariff announcements, specifically I will be looking to hear if Canada announces counter-measures targeting energy, and as always on Wednesday’s, the markets will take cues from the EIA report. Technically, both Brent and WTI had a strong momentum day, breaking above and closing above key moving averages and resistance levels (settling above 5-20-50-100-200 and year-to-date moving averages for WTI and Brent)

WTI Crude oil has broken above its $67 long-term support line, while Brent has sustained above its $70.00 level. $65 has been a major support figure since 2021, and with the settlements over the past week I believe we have set a new short-term support at the $67 handle (We’ll find out if $70 becomes the new short-term support this week I believe). To the upside, there’s resistance in the upper $69 region into $70 handle (which we settled above today), above that $74.50 for WTI.  Longer term I think we are still leaning more into the $65-$75 range rather than the $70-$80 range for 2025 for WTI. 

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You can reach me at - JRinaudo@walshtrading.com

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Jim Rinaudo

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Walsh Trading

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